In recent days, Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as the frontrunner for the Democratic Party's 2024 presidential nominee in various betting markets, surpassing President Joe Biden. PredictIt's traders now give Harris a 44% chance of leading the Democratic ticket, while Biden's chances have fallen to 38%. This shift comes as pressure mounts for Biden to drop out of the race against former President Donald Trump.
On major prediction markets like PolyMarket and BetUS.com, Harris has also surpassed Biden in terms of the odds of winning the nomination and the election. This change in the prediction markets reflects the betting public's increasing support for Harris and Trump.
According to Timothy Williams, director of public relations for BetUS, the movement in the lines is based on how customers are placing their bets and input from oddsmakers. He notes that recent betting action on Harris has led to her odds tightening quickly. Similarly, PredictIt public relations director Lindsey Singer highlights the real-time tracking of public reactions to events in the prediction market.
The recent volatility in the prediction sites' projections for the Democratic nominee follows President Biden's poor debate performance against Trump on June 27. A new poll by ABC News and The Washington Post shows a virtual tie between Biden and Trump, with a majority of respondents believing Biden should drop out of the race due to his age and performance.
As Biden's odds of remaining the presumptive nominee have fluctuated throughout the week, calls for him to step aside have grown among lawmakers and high-profile supporters. This includes Hollywood star George Clooney, who recently penned an op-ed urging Biden to pass the baton. Reports of declining donations to Biden's campaign add to the challenges he faces in the race.
Overall, the shifting dynamics in the prediction markets and the growing pressure on Biden underscore the uncertainty and intrigue surrounding the Democratic Party's 2024 nominee selection process.